Fifth Anniversary Of Invasion Of Iraq: If Only The Americans Had Listened To The Russians
March 21, 2008
When I watch President George Bush making a speech I always wonder: does he actually believe in what he is saying or is he just reading a prepared text, not really giving a thought to what he is uttering? I guess that on most occasions he’s probably just reading without thinking, like it was with his recent speech on the fifth anniversary of the Iraq invasion. Bush claimed that the war had been an undeniable success and insisted that it will end in victory. He also claimed that what was happening in Iraq at the moment amounted to a major strategic victory in the broader war on terror. ‘We are witnessing,’ he said, ‘the first large-scale Arab uprising against Osama Bin Laden, his grim ideology and his terror network.’
There were other strange statements made and the overall impression was that the US President wasn’t really thinking what effect his words would have on his audience. Because no matter how you look at the Iraqi situation ‘undeniable success’ is not exactly the phrase you’d use to describe it. Total chaos or a massive bloodbath would be more suitable descriptions.
A few months before the invasion, in November 2002, I had a meeting in Moscow with a senior Kremlin official who was something of an authority on the Middle East. He told me that the Russians have warned the Americans that any military campaign in Iraq would be very long and very bloody. ‘We told them that the Iraqi army wouldn’t fight them on the ground and that it would disappear for a while, only to come back later with a vengeance,’ the Kremlin man said. ‘We told them that the Iraqi people wouldn’t tolerate the presence of foreign troops on their soil. And we also warned them that a bloody civil war could break out in Iraq which would threaten the stability of the whole region.’
‘But what other options do the American have?’ I said. ‘Considering that they are set on regime change in Iraq.’
The Kremlin man pondered for a while.
‘I guess that if I were in their shoes I would probably settle for a commando type operation to eliminate Saddam,’ he said. ‘And then offer to negotiate with anyone who replaces him. It’s not a perfect solution but it’s better than sending troops into the country.’
The Americans, of course, ignored all the warnings that the Russians had given them. They actually believed that the Iraqi people would greet them as liberators and that a Western style democracy would be created in the country in a year or two. That didn’t happen.
The Russians had been right on all their points. If only the Americans had listened to them.
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