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Zimbabwe: The Future Is Not Looking Good

April 6, 2008

‘So what is going to happen now in Zimbabwe?’ I asked a man recently who knows the situation in that country very well, having just returned from there. ‘What will Robert Mugabe do now?’I don’t want to name my source because he travels back and forth to Zimbabwe all the time and would not feel safe if his details were revealed to the world. I can only say that he is a political analyst and an expert on systems of government in Africa. And he is a Zimbabwean citizen.

‘Well,’ he said, ‘the most likely scenario is this: Robert Mugabe would take part in the run-off election, win it, rule the country for another year or two and then select a successor and step down, and possibly even run things from behind the scenes. Similar to what is happening now in Russia. You know, Putin choosing his successor, stepping down and not really going away. But, of course, in your country the whole election was much more tightly controlled, with no opposition and no serious candidates standing.’

It was not pleasant for me to hear that particular comparison between Zimbabwe and Russia. Especially as the man was right: compared to Zimbabwe, Russia looks like the last of the last banana republics. By the way, you might have missed this fact in the news but Mugabe’s regime allowed observers only from specific countries to monitor the recent elections.

Want to hear which countries these were? OK, I’ll tell you: China, Cuba, Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Mr Mugabe, you see, had faith in these nations. Trusted them to make a fair and proper conclusion about fairness of the democratic electoral process in his country.

But back to my Zimbabwean source.

‘So how come,’ I asked him, ‘Mugabe is so tough? How come the people are unable to get rid of him? With all that international public opinion on their side?’

‘Well,’ my informed source said, ‘you have to remember that the army is firmly on his side and that is his crucial advantage as regards domestic balance of power. And as for the international pressure, there is really not much anyone can do, especially as Mugabe had been installed in power with the help of the West and has serious political backing in Africa.’

I then asked about something which has been baffling me: how on earth does Mugabe manage to keep his closest people interested, considering that the economy has practically collapsed?

‘Mineral resources,’ came the answer. ‘There will always be foreign buyers for these things and that means a lot of money for the people who run the country. They know that if Mugabe goes, they lose access to these riches.’

‘OK,’ I said, ‘one last question then: assuming that a miracle happens and the opposition comes to power in Zimbabwe. How would things develop then?’

‘I doubt that it would happen soon,’ my source said, ‘But if it does, the new leaders will be initially trying hard to look different, but eventually they’ll get the taste for the good life and start amassing fortunes.’

‘Just like in Russia then,’ I said gloomily. ‘New broom sweeps, but nothing really changes.’

‘Yes,’ said my source, ‘just like in Russia. Both of our countries have a serious problem with governing themselves, corruption being the main obstacle. It never seems to go away, never.’

So there you have it: President Mugabe is not going anywhere, folks. You’d better get used to it, whatever anyone tells you.

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