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Pakistan and China: A New Strategic Partnership Emerging?

(This analysis has been provided by my regular reader, a leading expert on international relations.)

President Pervez Musharraf has recently escaped for a couple of days from the tensions of domestic Pakistani politics and paid a visit to his northern neighbour, China. A five year trade and development deal has been signed during his visit. However, the most significant aspect of the trip was the cementing of a strategic partnership which will see China helping Pakistan to overcome some of the deficiencies of its armed forces. The two countries are to engage in co-production of the JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft – similar to the American F-16 which the US is still delivering to Islamabad – and the F22P naval frigate. The latter project amounts to the building of four frigates, three in China and one in shipyards in Karachi. The project involves the transfer of military technology – still denied to Islamabad by Washington – and will eventually make it possible for Pakistan to build its own state of the art warships.

Why is China showing such great interest in Pakistan? The US military presence in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan has ruffled feathers in Beijing. It fears that Washington is gradually surrounding the Middle Kingdom. The new found American rapprochement with India is alarming for the Chinese too. Traditionally China has sided with Pakistan in the Indo-Pakistani conflict. During the Sino-Indian border war of 1962 the USA came out strongly on the Indian side. In 1965, the Indo-Pakistani war revealed that, when push came to shove, Washington would choose India. This disillusionment with the Americans led to China becoming the major supplier of arms to Islamabad as Pakistan was a natural ally against the rise of Indian influence in the region.

As part of its War on Terror, the US has extended its military reach into China’s backyard. Given the more advanced nature of American military might, the Chinese felt themselves at a distinct disadvantage. China is now involved in the construction of a major civil-military port at Gwadar, on the coast of Baluchistan province. Not only will the Chinese navy have full access to the port but a rail link, fibre optic cable and an oil pipeline will run from Gwadar to the Karakorum highway which links up with China. This is quite a coup for the Chinese navy in its quest to expand into the Indian Ocean and beyond. China needs a naval presence to guard the shipping lines which bring oil and other vital raw materials to fuel its burgeoning industries.

Pakistan is now at a crossroads. Will its attitude to combating terrorism change after the recent electoral victory of the opposition? After 9/11 Islamabad had no choice but to join the American led War on Terror, especially since Washington was offering support in exchange for cooperation. The presence of US troops on Pakistani soil helped to cool the Indo-Pakistani military tension of 2002. Islamabad has certainly gained from supporting the US, getting the supply of sophisticated military hardware. It has continued acquiring Chinese arms but they only represented medium level technology.

China is now concerned about the penetration of Xinjiang, its Muslim province which borders Pakistan, by Islamic ‘terrorists’, mainly Uighurs who are trained in Afghanistan but also in Pakistan. So far Pakistan and China have collaborated in dealing with these fighters but this does not mean that the problem is under control. The kidnapping of Chinese workers, involved in gas projects in Baluchistan, in October 2004, greatly embarrassed Musharraf although rapid military intervention freed them. Then there was the storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad in June 2006 when many fundamentalists were killed. It came as no surprise when Musharraf, during his visit to Beijing, made clear that Pakistan would cooperate fully with China in its struggle against the ‘East Turkestan (Uighur) terrorists’. The Pakistani President did not contest the Chinese view that all those behind the demand for independence in Xinjiang were Uighur Islamic terrorists.

How will the strategic partnership between China and Pakistan develop? The new democratic government in Islamabad will certainly engage in a review of its priorities in the War on Terror. A critical factor will be the American policy in Iraq. Many Western analysts regard Iraq as a strategic defeat for the coalition. The best Washington and London can hope for is to withdraw gradually and hope that the Iraqi army survives. In Afghanistan, the US and its allies are engaged in a conflict which has no military solution. Senior Pakistani military officers, trained in the US, may tend to support maintaining links with the US. However, middle ranking officers, some of whom have been trained in China, may support closer ties with their northern neighbour.

Both China and Washington are closely watching developments in Pakistan. The Inter-Services Intelligence organisation has not supported fully Musharruf’s crackdown on Islamic militants in western Pakistan. The new secular government in Islamabad has to confront enormous economic problems at a time when there is a global downturn in developed economies. The rise in the prices of rice and other foods fuel conflict and many young Pakistanis may listen to imams who claim that it is all a conspiracy by the infidels against Islam.

Washington is desperate to retain Pakistani support in the War on Terror. Rising Islamic fundamentalist influence could upset the strategic balance. An Islamic leaning Pakistan would make the position of Western forces in Afghanistan almost untenable. As for China, it knows that a radical Islamic regime in Islamabad might start supporting the struggle for independence of Xinjiang Muslims.

These are worrying times for policy makers in Beijing and Washington.

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