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Russia Does A U-Turn On Zimbabwe. Not A Good Sign For President Medvedev

July 12, 2008


So, Russia has sided with China and vetoed a UN Security council resolution imposing sanctions on Zimbabwe. Russian officials said that the decision to block the sanctions was taken on the grounds that they represented an attempt to meddle in the internal affairs of a member of the UN. Western countries responded with anger and accused both Russia and China of undermining efforts to find a resolution to the crisis in Zimbabwe.   For me personally the big issue about this whole thing is the way President Dmitry Medvedev has been so publicly humiliated by his mentor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. At the recent G8 summit in Japan Medvedev supported the idea of imposing sanctions against Robert Mugabe’s regime and signed the final declaration which envisaged such an outcome. Other members of the G8 made a point of this and praised the Russian leader for his support. So naturally they were all taken aback by the U-turn made by the Kremlin?

It is quite obvious that the decision to break ranks with the West came from Prime Minister Putin. Because it would have been very damaging for Mr Medvedev to go back on his word only a few days after he had given his assurances that Russia was supporting the West in its stance against Mugabe. Did Putin care that the Russian President would be seen as a lame duck? Obviously not. So what does it say to the rest of the world? Well, the rest of the world knows now that the real power in Moscow lies with the head of government and not the head of state. I suspect that world leaders from now on would be quite reluctant to deal with Medvedev knowing that he does not really decide much.

I also think that Russia has done itself a disfavour by changing its position so dramatically in the space of a few days. Sure, there were reasons for its anger with the West: there is the continuing movement on the way to deploying the antimissile shield in Europe and the growing tension with Georgia over the two breakaway territories – Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia blames the US and its allies for fuelling the crisis by supporting Georgia. Moscow is also very unhappy with what is sees as the West’s meddling in the affairs of some of former Soviet republics and even suspects Washington of planning a revolution in Belarus, one of Russia’s closest allies. But even considering all these grievances it was not a good idea to show to the entire world that Russia’s word stands for nothing. Even an abstention would have looked better than a veto.

Some people believe that Moscow and Beijing were not keen on supporting the idea of imposing sanctions on a country purely for its poor track record in human rights and for its undemocratic elections. Both Russia and China can’t really boast about having a good record in upholding human rights and obviously can’t claim to have conducted free and fair elections. But I suspect that it wasn’t the main reason for blocking the UN resolution by the two countries. I think that we saw a case of power politics played out by Russia and China who basically signalled to the West that the days when it could decide the fate of other nations is over. Moscow and Beijing are now thinking in terms of a multi-polar world, as Russian officials like to put it, and they are demonstrating to everyone their new found confidence and determination to influence events on the world stage. I actually believe that both Russia and China did not really worry about a possibility of becoming targets of sanctions in the future for their disregard for human rights and democracy. There is absolutely no way that that the West would ever dare to even hint at a possibility of punitive measures against Russia and China.

I also think that the most important aspect of the vote in the UN Security Council on Zimbabwe was South Africa’s decision to reject the sanctions. This was a crucial decision and it demonstrates once again that the African nations would not support the idea of any interference in Zimbabwe from ‘outsiders’. The way things stand Robert Mugabe has nothing to worry about. His African allies will see to it that he retains his grip on power for years to come.

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