The Crisis In Georgia: The Winners And Losers
August 31, 2008
It is now becoming apparent who are emerging as winners and losers from the war between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.Let’s talk about the winners first. Washington is one of the big winners. That’s why some people, including Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and yours truly, were saying that the United States must have been responsible for igniting the fire. According to Putin, American role in this crisis was highlighted by the presence of ‘US citizens’ on the ground during the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia. Days before Putin’s statement I was writing on this website that the US had their fingerprints all over the crisis because they seemed to be too well prepared for the whole thing in terms of public...
Russia and China: Friends Or Reluctant Partners?
August 31, 2008
(By Martin McCauley) A meeting took place in Yekaterinburg in Russia earlier this year. Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries) had come together to map out the future of the world.The BRIC countries account for almost half the world’s population and have the most dynamic economies. They are not natural allies: Brazil and India are friendly with the United States, Russia is anti-American and China tries to strike a fine balance with Washington. Behind the scenes tensions exist. India’s recent deal on nuclear power with the United States has revealed Washington’s determination to wean India away from its traditional friendship with Russia. Indian high technology imports of machinery and weapons are more likely now to come from the US rather than Russia....
Russia Is Finding That Its Recognition Of South Ossetia and Abkhazia Was A Mistake
August 29, 2008
(By Martin McCauley) Russia’s decision to recognise the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has sent shivers down the spines of some of the states in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The SCO has been meeting in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan. Its members are: China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Mongolia, Pakistan, Iran and India were present as observers.Russia’s invasion of Georgia was on the agenda in Dushanbe, with Moscow hoping that the SCO would add legitimacy to the undertaking. But nothing of the kind happened. Members merely expressed understanding of the Russian position. There was a deathly silence when it came to the issue of recognition of the two breakaway regions. No member, besides Russia, has so far recognised...
North Korea Senses US Weakness. And Revives Its Nuclear Ambitions
August 28, 2008
(By Martin McCauley) Washington is reeling. First, the Syrian President visits Moscow to conclude an alliance which could see Russian re-emerging as a military power in the Middle East for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Then, North Korea announces that it has stopped disabling its nuclear facilities (the Yongbyon reactor and the demolition of its cooling tower), accusing the US of reneging on a six party disarmament deal.On the face of it Pyongyang is angry that after it had delivered the report on its nuclear arsenal Washington did not remove it from the list of countries accused of state sponsored terrorism. The US claims its wants more stringent verification procedures to be put in place before it reviews the status of the Democratic People’s Republic...
Barack Obama Is Paying The Price. For Being In The Same Party As Hillary Clinton
August 27, 2008
I suspect that Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama, is regretting that he is in the same political party as Hillary Clinton. This woman would be the death of him one day. Political death, that is. Although knowing the Clintons you can expect anything from them. Mrs Clinton is now a great supporter of Obama. In her speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver she called on the people, who had voted for her in the primaries, to support her former opponent. She stressed that it was important for the Democrats to unite and make sure that Obama gets into the White House in November. But, of course, she did not really mean all that. She had other ideas on her mind, like hoping that Obama would lose to the Republican John McCain so that she could have another go at the presidency...
Are Oil And Gas Killing Off Democracy? It Sure Looks Like It
August 27, 2008
Martin McCauley writes: Back in 1959 the American political scientist, Seymour Martin Lipset, published a seminal article on democracy and economic development. He was fascinated by American society which he regarded as exceptional. How else was one to explain America’s economic and political dominance of the world at that time? Lipset coined the aphorism: ‘The more prosperous a nation is, the greater the chances it will sustain a democracy.’ In other words, if a nation wishes to become rich the best path to take is democracy. These words were written nearly 50 years ago. But is this true in today’s world? Can only democracies achieve prosperity? And how does one calculate which state is prosperous and which one is not: by the size of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by...
Russia Raises The Stakes: Moscow Recognises The Independence Of South Ossetia And Abkhazia
August 26, 2008
The Kremlin has demonstrated its determination to continue scoring political points on the domestic front by raising the stakes in its stand-off with the West over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Because make no mistake – this whole conflict with Georgia is played out by the Russian leadership primarily for domestic consumption, in an attempt to distract attention from the rapidly deteriorating economic situation in the country and the gross mismanagement of public finances and assets. In the latest development in this propaganda war President Medvedev has announced that Russia is officially recognising the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The announcement was made in response to the resolution adopted yesteday by both chambers of the Russian parliament...
Russia and Syria: The First Fruits Of Moscow’s Victory In Georgia
August 22, 2008
(By a leading political analyst.) The visit of President Bashar al-Assad to Moscow is a startling consequence of the Russian military victory in Georgia. He stated on his arrival: ‘We are ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its security’. He added that Russia needs to think of a response to the fact that it is being encircled by hostile nations. He made clear that he would be discussing the stationing of Russian missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also shopping for weapons. Syria is also expected to welcome back the Russian navy to Tartus, a base Russia lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. We are back again to the times when Syria was very close politically and militarily to Moscow. Syria is at present negotiating with Lebanon to...
The US Have Their Fingerprints All Over The Conflict In Georgia. They Benefited Most From It
August 21, 2008
The United States have their fingerprints all over the conflict in Georgia. And you know how I know about it? Because already the US seem to have benefitted most from it. Yes they did, there is no question about it. Not to mention that they have been extremely well prepared for the supposedly ‘unexpected’ crisis in Georgia in terms of PR. Very well prepared indeed. Rolled out their PR guns in a matter of hours and even managed to pronounce all the unpronounceable Georgian names with ease. That last thing alone, by the way, proves that they have been rehearsing for some time. Let me explain where I am coming from on this. But before I start, let us all agree on one thing: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili would have never dared to challenge Russia militarily if he did not have some...
The Conflict Between Russia And Georgia: No, There Won’t Be A New Cold War
August 19, 2008
It is time to dispel some of the myths that surround the conflict between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia. There have been too many comments made by people who, obviously, are not that well informed about the situation that exists in both Russia and Georgia and who have been trying to cover up their ignorance by making sensational statements and predictions that have nothing to do with reality. Let’s first deal with the widely held view that as a result of the conflict relations between the West and Russia would deteriorate to such an extent that we would witness a new round of the Cold War. It makes great headlines, of course, but nothing could be further from the truth. First of all, the times of global military stand offs between ideological foes are long...
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