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Afghanistan: A Theatre Of Conflict Between Two Asian Superpowers

August 14, 2008

Afghanistan: A Theatre Of Conflict Between Two Asian Superpowers(By a leading political analyst.) So you think the conflict in Afghanistan is confined to the battle between US and NATO forces, on the one hand, and the Taliban, on the other? Think again. There is another less obvious conflict going on between two Asian superpowers that are determined to establish their influence in Afghanistan for years to come.

There is a widespread myth that all those involved in Afghanistan share the same strategic goals: that the country should become a secular, stable, democratic and pro-Western state. But in reality some of the key players are actually pursuing their own objectives that have nothing to do with the agenda of the Western powers. I am referring, of course, to the increasingly bitter struggle between Pakistan and India.

The wakeup call for the West came on July 7 when a suicide car bomb exploded near India’s embassy in Kabul, killing four Indian officials and 40 others. The prime suspect was the Taliban but there are those in the US intelligence who think that the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) was involved in the attack. Pakistan has been competing with India for influence in Afghanistan for quite some time now. Islamabad’s national security rests on three axes: keeping most of its army on the Indo-Pakistani border; having a nuclear deterrent; providing a stable western border which removes the nightmare of a possible war on two fronts. This last point is becoming crucial for Islamabad as it sees its influence in Afghanistan weakening.

To understand the current situation we need to go back to September 11, 2001. That day changed everything. Pakistan president Musharraf joined the United States in the war against terror. Islamabad helped Washington and NATO to remove the Taliban from power in Afghanistan. Musharraf then sent his army into the tribal regions on the Afghan border to pacify the situation there. He was shocked when his troops were defeated by the Taliban and Pakistani Pashtun tribes who were enraged by the presence of Western forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s collusion with them. In effect Musharraf, by his own actions, has destabilised Pakistan’s western border. The only conciliation for him was that US and NATO forces would soon leave Afghanistan and that the threat of instability along the western border would subside. Which did not happen, of course.

Meanwhile, India had seized the opportunity to ensure that its arch enemy’s western frontier did not become peaceful by increasing its influence in Afghanistan. India is now involved in the reconstruction of Afghanistan and is the fifth largest donor. There are about 4,000 Indians building roads and other parts of the infrastructure. India’s diplomatic presence in Kabul is larger than ever before and it has opened consulates in Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, Kandahar and Herat. An added advantage for New Delhi is that President Karzai received part of his education in India.

Some Indian commentators accuse Pakistan of supporting the Taliban and al-Qaeda and argue for a greater Indian military presence in Afghanistan. A new version of the Great Game has emerged: between India and Pakistan for supremacy in Afghanistan with New Delhi winning at the moment.

The attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul and rumours that Pakistan was behind it have soured relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan and antagonised Islamabad and New Delhi even more. The present flare up in Kashmir adds fuel to the flames. President Musharraf has also accused India of using its consulates to collect intelligence about Pakistan and to provide paramilitary support for the separatists in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.

Islamabad is also concerned with the increasingly warm US-Indian relationship. Washington is quietly encouraging New Delhi to assume a higher profile in resolving regional conflicts to reflect its increasing economic and military power.

Pakistani journalists now write about a new axis forming: Kabul-New Delhi and Washington, with the latter blaming everything which goes wrong in Afghanistan on Pakistan. If the world is against Pakistan, then its natural allies become the Taliban, al-Qaeda and Pashtun militants. The Pakistani Taliban have already made clear that after the infidel allied forces are defeated in Afghanistan they will turn on India.

A pro-Indian Kabul government is perceived as a mortal threat to the existence of Pakistan. Islamabad, it seems, is prepared to take drastic steps to prevent this happening. The growing rivalry between India and Pakistan for influence in Afghanistan may undermine all the efforts of the West to make the country stable.

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