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North Korea Senses US Weakness. And Revives Its Nuclear Ambitions

August 28, 2008

North Korea Senses US Weakness. And Revives Its Nuclear Ambitions(By Martin McCauley) Washington is reeling. First, the Syrian President visits Moscow to conclude an alliance which could see Russian re-emerging as a military power in the Middle East for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Then, North Korea announces that it has stopped disabling its nuclear facilities (the Yongbyon reactor and the demolition of its cooling tower), accusing the US of reneging on a six party disarmament deal.On the face of it Pyongyang is angry that after it had delivered the report on its nuclear arsenal Washington did not remove it from the list of countries accused of state sponsored terrorism. The US claims its wants more stringent verification procedures to be put in place before it reviews the status of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Why has the spat between the two countries blown up now? Its timing appears to coincide with the Russian military victory in Georgia and the pusillanimous US response. Pyongyang senses that the US is now reluctant to use force abroad to defend its security interests.

Over the last decade there have been numerous discussions with the DPRK over its nuclear ambitions. The six regional powers: North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the US – finally agreed that the DPRK should disable its offensive nuclear facilities. The sweetener included electric power from South Korea, food aid and other benefits. South Korean workers even went north to help build new power stations. Tourists appeared in North Korea. But all that was short lived and now the workers from South Korea have been expelled and the tourists have gone home.

The long term aim of the six party talks was to progress to a security mechanism for the region. There was even talk of a new NATO (North East Asian Treaty Organisation) which would eventually include the DPRK. The present disagreement between Pyongyang and Washington means that this project will have to be postponed.

China is regarded as the most influential player out of the six nations but it expressed frustration in 2006 after the DPRK tested its missiles and a nuclear explosive device. Beijing had to face up to the fact that the Kim IL Jong II regime was unpredictable and intransigent. After the tests, Beijing let it be known that it was giving thought to a contingency plans for the possible deployment of the People’s Liberation Army in the DPRK. The reasoning behind it was that an unstable situation in North Korea could put the security of nuclear warheads and fissile material in risk. The fear was that they could fall into the hands of terrorist organisations. Beijing had been alarmed by the presence of radical Islamic groups in its most westerly province, Xinjiang.

Major disagreements between China and Japan contribute to the overall tension in the region and prevent reaching an agreement on the new security structure. There are disputes over seabed resources (there are large oil and gas reserves in the East China Sea) and the ownership of two islands. Then there are the remaining ‘open wounds’ of the Japanese invasion and occupation of part of China over the period of 1931-45.

Meanwhile relations between Washington and Beijing have improved markedly under the Bush administration. There is good personal chemistry between Presidents Bush and Hu Jintao and foreign ministers of the two countries meet on a regular basis. Even more remarkable are the regular joint military exercises and the exchanges of top military personnel. The tension over Taiwan has subsided. Ironically, the common problem of how to handle the unpredictable DPRK regime has brought the two sides closer together. Washington acknowledges that Beijing is the main player in dealing with Pyongyang.

The recent backtracking by Pyongyang on the issue of winding up its nuclear programme poses potential dangers for the US. If the DPRK remains intransigent, China may be unwilling to exert further pressure for fear of provoking a crisis there. Russia may also be reluctant to cooperate with Washington to find a solution. If one is an optimist, one would argue that Pyongyang is playing a tactical game in order to force more concessions from the other members of the group. If one is a pessimist, one would see this as an indication that the DPRK regards the US as a weakened power and therefore does not need to make any concessions to Washington.

This implies that Pyongyang is planning to revive its nuclear programme. The thought alone is bound to send a shiver down the spines of its neighbours.

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