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Ukraine: Is The Orange Revolution Over?

September 11, 2008

Ukraine: Is The Orange Revolution Over?(By Martin McCauley.) He came, he saw but he did not conquer. President Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine travelled to Paris and asked for membership of the European Union for his country of 47 million people. He was fobbed off with an ‘association agreement’.   Optimists would say that this is the first step on a long road to membership. Pessimists would counter that by saying that this is the equivalent of the slow boat to China. The EU took fright at the prospect of welcoming a state which has just seen its ruling coalition fall apart and which is deeply divided about the future of its security. It also has a large ethnic Russian minority in east Ukraine and ethnic Russians make up a majority of the population of Crimea.

President Dmitry Medvedev recently spelled out Russia’s foreign policy goals. One of them was to protect ethnic Russians ‘wherever they are’. No wonder Brussels decided that procrastination was the better part of valour. No point baiting the Russian bear at a time when he is gorged with Georgian territory.

Viktor Yushchenko became an overnight star in early 2004 when he was elected President of Ukraine. The events which led up to this sea change in Ukrainian politics were called the Orange Revolution after the colour of the plastic macs the demonstrators wore in Kiev and other cities. They had staged a sit in after the November 2004 presidential election results had given victory to Viktor Yanykovich, the conservative, pro-Russian candidate. The darling of the democrats, Yushchenko, was vanquished. This was regarded as blatant vote-rigging by his supporters and eventually their pressure resulted in a re-run. Yushchenko won 52 per cent of the vote and became President.

At that time the President was constitutionally much more powerful than the Prime Minister. As part of the deal, Yushchenko had agreed to constitutional changes which passed some of the presidential powers to the Prime Minister. He thought that this would not damage the Orange Revolution as he assumed that the Prime Minister would be an ally. This miscalculation was to prove his nemesis. It was the first of many political misjudgements which may mean that he leaves the political stage in 2010 when the next presidential elections are due.

Yushchenko is a Ukrainian version of Gordon Brown. It takes him a long time to make up his mind and by the time he does decide what to do there are even greater problems looming. Yushchenko’s imminent downfall comes in the shape of a braided, flaxen haired bombshell called Yulia Tymoshenko. They appeared a perfect team but the lady had no intention of playing a secondary role. Her fierce ambition led to her setting up her own political group in parliament (Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko or BYT). Yushchenko was forced to follow suit and formed the Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence (NUNS).

Ms Timoshenko made no secret of the fact that for her the post of Prime Minister was only a stepping stone to the presidency. The two heroes of the Orange Revolution have quickly turned into bitter political rivals. This was music to the ears of Viktor Yanykovich and, by extension, to the men in the Kremlin. Then the totally unexpected happened: Tymoshenko began putting out feelers to Yanykovich and his Party of the Regions.

Things came to a head during the Russian invasion of Georgia. Yushchenko strongly condemned the action and called for the territorial integrity of Georgia to be respected. Yanykovich, naturally, supported the Russian demarche. And Tymoshenko observed a Sphinx-like silence.

President Yushchenko accused her of betraying the Orange Revolution and Georgia. He withdrew his party, NUNS, from the coalition government headed by Tymoshenko. The Prime Minister has various options. She can put together a new coalition – this time with Yanykovich’s Party of the Regions. She could also allow the government to fall and precipitate the third parliamentary election in four years.

Opinion polls give Yanykovich’s party 27 per cent, Tymoshenko’s bloc 22 per cent and the communists 5 per cent. Yushchenko’s NUNS is predicted to get less than 4 per cent which is the barrier for entering parliament. One of Tymoshenko’s deputies in parliament has drafted a bill which would raise the threshold to 10 per cent. This would wipe out Yushchenko’s party in parliament. Even more embarrassingly for the President, Tymoshenko and Yanykovich’s allies have set up a parliamentary committee to investigate illegal arms supplies to Georgia by the Ukrainian military. Yushchenko sees this as blatant politicking, as arms were sold to Georgia by previous Ukrainian Presidents.

Timoshenko has been to Moscow for discussions with the Russians leaders. There are even rumours of a $1 billion Russian war chest for her campaign to become President in 2010. Presumably such sensitive topics as Ukrainian membership of NATO and the extension of the lease for the Russian Navy at Sevastopol, which runs out in 2017, were touched upon.

The issue of Ukrainian membership of the EU does not divide the country. However, it is not a priority at present for Tymoshenko. She has her eyes set on the presidency in 2010. She believes she can attract the pragmatic business wing of Yanykovich’s party to her colours. Will her probable election as President in 2010 spell the end of the Orange Revolution? It will certainly mean the end of the alliance with President Yushchenko which made the revolution possible?

The future looks bright for Tymoshenko, but it may not be orange.

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