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Pakistan And Afghanistan: The Strange Realities Of The War On Terror

September 13, 2008

Pakistan And Afghanistan: The Strange Realities Of The War On Terror(By Martin McCauley) It is becoming clearer by the day that the resignation of President Pervez Musharraf was a serious body blow for Washington. He was a resolute ally of the Americans in their war with Al Qaeda and the Taliban. However, in pursuing this war he alienated an increasing number of Pakistanis. His demise has proven that it is now impossible for a Pakistani President to succeed while being closely allied with the US.   Asif Ali Zardari, the new President, is under pressure already to ban the US from using unmanned drones to target militants in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) which border Afghanistan. It has resulted in the deaths of many civilians including children. Every attack is adding to the number of Pakistanis who are willing to fight against the US. The main reason why the Americans are using this tactic is the increasing attacks on their troops in Afghanistan. The fighters attack the US troops and then retreat into the border region of Pakistan.

Washington seized the opportunity to attack militants on Pakistani territory during the interim period between the resignation of General Musharraf and the inauguration of Asif Ali Zardari. This demarche has created more problems for Washington than it has resolved. The Taliban are based in villages and are using civilians as human shields. Will Washington simply have to concede defeat in the FATA? If so, what is the solution to the terrorist problem in Pakistan and Afghanistan?

Musharraf’s supporters were routed in the parliamentary elections of February 2008. The new Pakistani Prime Minister, Yusuf Raza Gillani, is confronted with an almost impossible task. His job has become even more difficult after the departure of Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistani Muslim League. The latter has the second largest number of seats in parliament. Gillani may have to rely on smaller parties and local support throughout the country. This would be quite a feat in normal times but Gillani has to cope with raging inflation, increased terrorist activity and a crippling energy shortage. The result is a weak coalition government. The federal government will also face opposition from some of the provinces such as Baluchistan and the North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

President Zardari came to an understanding with the US and Britain before he became head of state. Presumably it included continued large financial and military aid in return for continuing with the war on terror. The main challenge facing President Zardari is that he is a civilian and has no links to the military. His reign will also be weakened by the drawbacks of Pakistani politics which are dominated by family ties and clans. Zardari’s power base is in the Sindh province and as a result most new government ministers will come from Sindh. Others will have family connections with Zardari. All this will limit the influence both of the head of state and of the government.

The government’s weakness may tempt the military to play a more active role in politics. Its head, General Kayani, is regarded as secular in outlook and pro-Western. He has spent time studying in the United States – as have almost all of the top brass. The military will not want to see the financial aid from Washington dry up. However, the Pakistani army is trained to fight the Indian army in the event of a war with India and is reluctant to get involved in tribal warfare in the FATA. It is also important to remember that many soldiers are from the NWFP and sending them to fight their own kith and kin is not a good idea. Resisting the insurgents in the FATA should be the responsibility of the paramilitary Frontier Corps. Unfortunately it is too small, poorly trained and not equipped properly.

The Pakistani army played a role in helping the Taliban to take over Afghanistan. It would prefer a pro-Islamabad government in Kabul. But President Hamid Karzai is regarded as pro-Indian and any regime dominated by the Northern Alliance (Turkmen, Uzbek and Tajiks) would be unacceptable to the Pakistani military. This may explain the continued presence of the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) within Afghanistan and its close links with the Taliban. The Pakistani Army and ISI are trying to combat the rising Indian influence in Kabul. This suggests that they will maintain links with the Taliban and may not support NATO forces in their battle with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

At the moment there are three different armies fighting the Taliban – the US, NATO and Afghan. The Americans operate under their own commander, General McKiernan; NATO operates under a separate command as does the Afghan army. They rarely share intelligence. No wonder a western diplomat has remarked ruefully that there is no overall strategy and no coordination. President Bush is sending an extra 4,500 troops to this theatre but they will all be there to beef up the American military contingent. US mistakes in Afghanistan are often the result of faulty intelligence.

The Taliban are becoming formidable opponents and are gradually encircling Kabul. They may eventually take over the capital and the south of the country. This would be quietly welcomed by the Pakistani military and by the ISI. Such are the strange realities of the war on terror in Afghanistan.

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