Are Talks With The Taliban In Afghanistan On The Cards?

October 29, 2008

Martin McCauley writes: President Hamid Karzai has revealed that he has asked for the support of Saudi Arabia and other states to bring the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan to an end. He wants negotiations with Mullah Muhammad Omar to begin to resolve the conflict that Kabul is now admitting cannot be won militarily.The Mullah’s position is quite clear: Western coalition forces must leave Afghanistan as soon as possible. Just like the Soviet Army had left in 1989. The Soviets were not defeated on the battlefield, but lost the diplomatic war. The Mullah is eying the same sequence of events this time round.

There are four military forces in Afghanistan fighting the Taliban. The Afghan Army is suffering the heaviest casualties and in between battles it is being trained to take over when Coalition forces leave. Then there is the NATO led group, mainly involved in the south. British forces form part of this. Then there are U.S. forces that observe a fundamental rule: the U.S. military abroad are always operating under the command of U.S. officers. Besides these forces there is also the CIA which operates independently of the U.S. military. It is run from Washington and is responsible for the unmanned drones which have killed six of the most wanted 20 al-Qaeda leaders, mainly on Pakistani territory.

These disparate groups do not share intelligence. Needless to say this results in embarrassing disasters, such as bombings of wedding parties, mistaking them for Taliban fighters.

President Karzai chose Saudi Arabia because it is one of only three states which maintained diplomatic relations with the Taliban before the attacks on 9/11. The Afghan President has even offered the Taliban portfolios in his government if it gives up military action. However, the Mullah, who heads the self styled Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, is an enigmatic figure. He negotiated the alliance with al-Qaeda. It provides safe havens for al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan. The Mullah is an ethnic Pashtun, the dominant ethnic group in Afghanistan.
In September 2001 the then U.S. President George Bush demanded that the Taliban hand over Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants or face drastic retribution. When the Taliban refused, Washington declared that it would lump both groups together as terrorist organisations. The goal was their complete annihilation.

U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates – who is staying on under President Barack Obama – and General David Petraeus, fresh from his experience of the ‘surge’ in Iraq, have floated suggestions that peace can be made with the Taliban. They have, however, made it clear that the war against al-Qaeda would continue.

Washington now recognises that there are fundamental differences between the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Whereas al-Qaeda is a violent international organisation, bent on sowing destruction worldwide, the Taliban is focused on a limited objective: taking control over Afghanistan. The Taliban is composed of many factions and its loyalties rest with tribal and family groups. This means that one can cultivate a ‘moderate’ faction with some hope of success.

Al-Qaeda, on the other hand, is tightly organised and disciplined. So would it be possible to break the links between the Taliban and al-Qaeda? The prize for the Taliban is to play a leading role in the next Afghan government. The negotiations will include a date for the withdrawal of the 70,000 foreign troops from the country.

Will the West admit defeat in Afghanistan just to escape the possibility of fighting there forever? Like the Soviets did?

– End –

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