Is North Korea Playing Games With China and The Rest Of The World?

November 3, 2008

(By Martin McCauley.) There is a new guessing game being played in Asia: is, the Dear Leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Kim Jong-Il, really ill and close to dying or is he just feigning weakness in order to divert the world’s attention from the ‘surprise’ announcement in August that the DPRK had ceased to disable its nuclear reactors? Or, in other words, that North Korea intends to build its own nuclear bomb.

The country most acutely concerned with this situation is China. It shares a thousand mile frontier with the DPRK and has beefed up the presence of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) along the border. If a succession struggle ensues in DPRK it could lead to civil war in the country and cause a flood of refugees attempting to cross the border into China. Beijing has enough to worry about at present without the meltdown of its communist neighbour.

If there is doubt about Kim Jong-Il’s health – and American and South Korean intelligence sevices believe that he is seriously ill – there is no doubt that his death would unleash a succession crisis. A scenario in which law and order breaks down in a country that has a potential nuclear capability is a nightmare not worth contemplating.

Beijing takes a pessimistic view of the outcome of the succession. It even assumes that the new leader could be anti-Chinese. This reveals that Beijing has decreasing influence in Pyongyang.

The succession problem is exacerbated by the fact that Kim Il Sung – Kim Jong-Il’s father – used divide and rule tactics to balance factions within the military. He played the pro-Chinese group off against the pro-Soviet group. While visiting China in 1982, Kim Il Sung explained to the then Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping that his son, Kim Jong-Il, had to take over after his death to avoid a violent power struggle.

Kim Jong-Il has used the same tactics of divide and rule as his father. The problem is that none of his sons have been groomed to succeed him. This is partly due to the leader’s ill health but also to fears of creating a successor, who could usurp power if he felt his father was too feeble to resist.

Kim has not permitted the leaders of the Korean Workers’ Party and the Central Military Commission to emerge as his potential successors. If Kim Jong-Il were to expire soon, a chaotic succession struggle would be inevitable.

If the leader’s health is reasonably good he will still have time to groom one of his sons as his successor. At present the DPRK is facing a grave economic situation and a food crisis. This makes it even more imperative for Kim to ensure that the top military and party leaders accept his choice of leaders.

A small team already functions to take key government decisions. This could evolve into a collective leadership. However, the weakness of this solution is that power in the DPRK has always been concentrated in the hands of one person, the supreme leader. There has never been a collective leadership, so it’s likely that it will fracture after the Dear Leader’s death.

The highest state institution, according to the present DPRK constitution, is the National Defence Commission. Kim has exercised power over it through the Korean People’s Army. This has given the military more political clout.

The army, however, is not united. Several of the top military report directly to Kim and, of course, each does not know what the other has said or what orders Kim has given. It is reasonable to assume that each of the top military commanders has a following among different groups of subordinate officers.

The military is divided into two parts: one is the standard army with soldiers but the second is devoted to the security of the leadership. It is a sub-unit of the military and owes allegiance only to Kim. Its loyalty is the key to Kim’s succession. If a son or some other person can command its loyalty, an orderly succession is possible. However, the likelihood of this may be slim.

So what are China’s contingency plans if the DPRK dissolves into chaos? A million strong army without effective leadership and possessing a nuclear capability is a frightening scenario. The military leader who emerges could be anti-Chinese. This might lead to the unification of the two Koreas. It will not be as peaceful as the unification of the two Germanies in 1990 when the Federal Republic simply swallowed up the German Democratic Republic. The GDR Volksarmee (People’s Army) simply dissolved overnight without a fight.

The PLA has sent medical specialists to care for Kim’s health. Beijing is mindful of relations with South Korea at this time. The Chinese know there is a faction in the KPA that is hostile to China. This is due to Chinese opposition to Pyongyang’s desire to develop nuclear weapons. It is also due to the deliberate fomenting of anti-Chinese sentiment in the military since the days of Kim Il Sung. Relations between the two militaries are cool and border incidents take place on a regular basis.

If the situation in DPRK becomes dangerous the PLA has contingency plans to invade the country. But as a result large numbers of refugees could seek protection in China. Camps along the frontier are planned in order to contain this possible exodus.

Beijing’s hope is that Kim’s health will remain at a level when he would still be able to rule the country. A DPRK succession struggle is the last thing China needs at present. Beijing wants to devote its energies to solving the huge economic challenges it faces in the wake of the world financial meltdown. And it has no desire to get involved in resolving a political crisis in a neighbouring country.

Bookmark to

Add 'Is North Korea Playing Games With China and The Rest Of The World?' to Del.icio.us

Add 'Is North Korea Playing Games With China and The Rest Of The World?' to digg

Add 'Is North Korea Playing Games With China and The Rest Of The World?' to reddit

Add 'Is North Korea Playing Games With China and The Rest Of The World?' to Technorati

Add 'Is North Korea Playing Games With China and The Rest Of The World?' to Newsvine

Add 'Is North Korea Playing Games With China and The Rest Of The World?' to Stumble Upon

Add 'Is North Korea Playing Games With China and The Rest Of The World?' to Google Bookmarks

Is the Kim Dynasty Coming To An End In North Korea? It Could Well Be
Martin McCauley writes: Politics in the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea (PDRK) are never dull these days. The main topic of conversation today – apart...
China Changes Its Approach To North Korea
Martin McCauley writers: The recent visit by Wang Jiarui, a senior official of the Communist Party of China (CPC), to the Democratic People’s Republic of...
North Korea Launches A Ballistic Missile. The World Is In Panic
As North Korea launches its ballistic missile, claiming success in delivering a communications satellite into orbit – a fact disputed by the U.S. –...
North Korea Senses US Weakness. And Revives Its Nuclear Ambitions
(By Martin McCauley) Washington is reeling. First, the Syrian President visits Moscow to conclude an alliance which could see Russian re-emerging as a military power...
The Stand-Off Between North Korea And The World Intensifies. The Options Are Very Limited
Thomas Mathew writes: As the stand-off between North Korea and the rest of the world resumes we, at StirringTroubleInternationally, pose a question: what is it...