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I’m Starting To Think That Gordon Brown Might Pull It Off. Win The Election, I Mean

November 9, 2008

I’m Starting To Think That Gordon Brown Might Pull It Off. Win The Election, I Mean I’m starting to think that Prime Minister Gordon Brown, working in tandem with Peter Mandelson (sounds a bit like the Medvedev and Putin act), might pull it off and win the next General Election, which, as we have been predicting on our website since September, could be called as soon as December of this year, or in May 2009. December is now beginning to look like a very real possibility indeed. And the reason I’m starting to have my doubts about the Conservatives winning is because David Cameron’s leadership is looking more and more like it’s not a leadership at all. He is just sort of present – from time to time, that is – and he says things occasionally and members of his frontbench team come up with comments once in a while.

But it all sounds so unconvincing, so dispassionate, that you begin to wonder whether the Tories, or at least the leadership, want to actually get into power. Maybe it suits them to be in opposition and not really do much? Just sit there, opposite Labour in the House of Commons, and have no responsibility for anything. And earn some good money on the side as consultants and directors or whatever else.

Maybe I’m wrong but it doesn’t really look like the Tories are gearing for a fight. And overall the Conservative front bench is not very impressive, is it? Just look at George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor. With that revelation about his links to the Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, his credibility has suffered a major blow. In an ideal situation he should have resigned quickly and a new man put in his place, hitting hard at the government. Because you can’t really have a weakened Number 2 in the team, can you?

And some other shadow cabinet members are not exactly packing a mean political punch, are they? Take William Hague: he might be a good person in real life, and everyone says he is, but can you really have a foreign affairs spokesman who has presided over a landslide defeat in the General Election? It just doesn’t seem right, does it?

And another thing: if he is such a great intellectual how come he wrote a book about William Pitt the Younger that was supposedly such a great hit with the public and sold so well? Why not write about somebody closer to home, like Tony Blair or Gordon Brown? That would have been much more useful to his party. Because what’s the point of knowing about a politician who has been dead for more than 200 years? It is much better to know about your immediate enemy and act accordingly.

There are others in the Shadow Cabinet who would have been better off on the backbenches. Some of them are quite unimpressive, actually, and can’t really get their message across, even within their own party.

In fact, some of the advisors Mr Cameron is using would be better off advising their opposite number. Because they are not exactly conservative in their views, are they? Especially that well-shaved bloke who always dresses casually.

Meanwhile Brown is going from strength to strength. In the PR sense, at least. He is seen as battling the financial crisis, and taking the lead in this on the world stage, jet-setting around the globe, and even ordering banks to pass interest rate decreases on to their customers. His government is also sending out messages, like, for example, hinting that most British troops could be pulled out of Iraq by next spring. That last one, by the way, tells me that the election is coming soon. The last thing that Labour needs now to really undermine the Tories is for some Conservative politician to switch sides or embarrass the leadership. London Mayor, Boris Johnson, might suddenly say something to upstage Cameron in a big way.

Speaking of Mr Johnson, I sense that he has big plans for himself. He has a high-profile job and he’d get a lot of exposure in 2012. Just about enough to get into parliament quickly and stand for the leadership of the party.

I also have a feeling that a sizable chunk of Conservatives MPs in the House of Commons have become so disillusioned with Cameron and his chums that they would gladly see the back of him and wait for the next election, somewhere in 2013. And these MPs would not lift a finger to help Cameron, just as it happened with Michael Howard, who seemed to be fighting the 2005 General Election all by himself.

By the way, I heard a rumour then that he pushed through Cameron to punish the party for letting him down. It sounded absurd at the time. Now it begins to make sense.

I’ll keep you posted.

– End –

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