Jordan: Which Way Will It Go?

November 22, 2008

Martin McCauley writes: Jordan – the country, not the B-list celebrity former Page 3 model – does not appear often in the news, much to its relief. However, it is facing two formidable challenges: how to cope with the fallout from the war in Iraq and the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Half the population of Jordan consists of Palestinian refugees. The former King Hussein was a major player in the Arab-Israeli imbroglio. He sided with Western efforts to resolve the conflict and was astute enough not to turn the Arab world against him. In return, Washington poured in billions of dollars of aid. One consequence of that was that Jordanian security services were among the best in the region.

King Hussein permitted Islamic radicals to remain in Jordan and plot the overthrow of Israel. He was confident that his well-trained agents could contain them. And that was indeed the case: Jordanian security services were always one step ahead of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic groups that were receiving considerable funding from the Gulf States.

Then King Hussein died and the US-led coalition invaded Iraq. At a stroke, Saddam Hussein’s anti-jihad barrier on Jordan’s eastern frontier disappeared. One of Saddam’s successes had been to prevent radicals from the Gulf States and South Asia moving into the region through Iraq.

The new King Abdullah sided with the US-led coalition in Iraq. This, of course, enraged Islamic radical groups. Parliamentary elections in 2003 and 2007 revealed the growing power of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm.

A small time Jordanian radical, Abu-Musab Al-Zarqawi, eventually became Al Qaeda’s no. 2 in Iraq. After his death he became a symbol of inspiration for young Jordanians in their struggle against Western influence.

Sectarian violence in Iraq led to almost a million Sunnis and some Shias seeking refuge in Jordan. This exacerbated tension between the predominantly Sunni population and the Shias.

The success of the American ‘surge’ in Iraq forced many Al Qaeda and other militants to flee to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. This augmented the number of those in Jordan who were critical of Kin Abdullah and his regime.

As a consequence Jordan has clamped down on Islamic militants and radical clerics. This factor could undermine the stability that Jordan has enjoyed for decades. Support for the US-led coalition in Iraq and Washington’s initiatives in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may have to be reconsidered.

From Al Qaeda’s point of view, events are moving in the right direction in Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom has long been a target because of its refusal to permit militants to use its territory to launch attacks on Israel.

Jordan is now on a knife-edge. Will it moderate its pro-Western stance in the face of mounting security problems? The removal of King Abdullah would spell disaster for the country and launch a violent civil war over power there.

The West will surely be hoping that the King can ride out the present storm.

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