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Will Al Qaeda Succeed in Penetrating Israel?

December 17, 2008

Will Al Qaeda Succeed in Penetrating Israel? Martin McCauley writes: One of the unintended consequences of the downfall of Saddam Hussein has been the removal of the barrier that had been preventing the penetration of Sunni mujahidin into neighbouring countries. These Salafist Islamists have now trickled into Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. They have two goals: to spread Salafist beliefs and to create a space from which they could attack Israel.

These Islamists have already established a foothold in the Gaza Strip. They are linking up with Israeli Arabs to launch attacks on Israel. The Jaysh al-Islam (Army of Islam) has already conducted anti-Israeli operations from Gaza. They are more radical than Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.

The Salafists do not conceal their affinity to Al Qaeda. They regard Palestine as an ‘Arab dowry’ and proclaim that ‘every Muslim has the right to engage in a jihad there’. Jordan, Syria and Lebanon have always prevented non-Palestinians using their territory as a base to attack Israel. The Salafists have now found a way round this problem. Washington, inadvertently, has opened up a route through Iraq to the West Bank and Gaza.

Militant Islam appears to have had little success in the West Bank with the Palestinian Authority, dominated by Fatah, being able to maintain control. Gaza is quite different. Salafist groups train there and boast publicly that they are going to move against Jews.

They have attacked Israeli army units when they penetrated Gaza and also Christian and American targets there. Salafist groups maintain that they receive funding from within Gaza and only ideological support from their brothers in Al Qaeda.

There have been reports of gun fights between Salafist groups and Hamas. However, there seems to be an implicit agreement that they can train fighters to engage the Israelis and to preach their version of Islam. They must not be seen as becoming embroiled in domestic politics in Gaza or try to impose their beliefs by force.

This appears a fragile understanding at best. The Salafists have already made clear that they do not believe that Hamas is implementing the Sharia or Islamic law. Hamas has raided Salafist mosques and, on one occasion, killed nine members of the Army of Islam. The latter have sworn revenge.

The Salafists oppose Hamas’s decision to begin informal talks with Israeli representatives. They have even appealed to Al Qaeda to condemn the Hamas leadership for engaging in negotiations with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. The continued inflow of Salafists from Iraq is augmenting their numbers but they appear to be having limited success in convincing Hamas fighters to join them.

One unintended consequence of the Israeli blockade of Gaza has been the growing attractiveness of the views of radical Islamists there.

Israeli media has reported claims by ‘Al Qaeda affiliates’ that they have fired 21 rockets and 18 mortar rounds into Israel since June 2008. They have also placed explosive charges along the security fence. Israeli officials have confirmed Al Qaeda related terrorist activities inside Israel in 2008.

In July, Israeli security forces arrested two Israeli Arabs and six Palestinians from east Jerusalem and accused them of trying to set up an Al Qaeda cell in Israel.

The stability of Jordan, Syria and Lebanon is critically important to the security of Israel. However, Salafist groups are spreading throughout Levant and Al Qaeda’s appeals to attack Israel and Jews are finding fertile ground.

When Britain and the United states leave Iraq, the Shia dominated Iraqi government will have little incentive to restrict the movement of Sunni radicals into other parts of the Levant.

The threat from the Salafists is set to grow.

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