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Is the Kim Dynasty Coming To An End In North Korea? It Could Well Be

January 22, 2009

Is the Kim Dynasty Coming To An End In North Korea? It Could Well BeMartin McCauley writes: Politics in the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea (PDRK) are never dull these days.

The main topic of conversation today – apart from the parlous state of the national economy – is who will succeed the Dear Leader, Kim Jong-il? Is he dead or alive? Is the successor chosen or not?

During its 60 year history, the PDRK has been ruled by the Kim dynasty. Is this dynasty going to fall or will it hang on for some more years?

Since the PDRK is a nuclear power the problem of succession of its leadership is not merely a domestic issue. It is of great significance to the country’s neighbours, especially China and South Korea. A battle for power after the demise or incapacitation of Kim il-jong could have disastrous consequences. Almost certainly it would provoke China’s intervention. Beijing could insist that it would be necessary to preclude the chance of a nuclear device falling into the hands of terrorists.

There is no doubt that Kim Jong-il is in poor health. A French specialist, called in to examine him, diplomatically observed that his death’ was not imminent’.

The first communist ruler of the DPRK, Kim Il-sung, found it advisable to appoint his son, Kim Jong-il, as his successor over a decade ahead of his death, in 1994. On a visit to China in 1982, Kim Il-sung confided to the then Chinese leader, Deng Xiaoping, that his son, Kim Jong-il, had to take over after his death, to avoid a violent power struggle.

Kim Jong-il has used the same divide and rule tactics as his father. The ‘old man’ fostered pro-Russian and pro-Chinese factions within the military. The other centre of power, the Korean Workers’ Party, was similarly split.

Kim Jong-il has three sons and many daughters. It would be remarkable if a woman came to power in such a patriarchal society. Hence, there are three filial contenders for the crown of supreme power.

The eldest is Kim Jong-nam, who is 37 years old. However, there are reports that he has embarrassed his father on more than one occasion. One of his escapades was an attempt to enter Japan, on a false passport. He likes the good life and, with apologies to J. M. Synge, one can call him the playboy of the eastern world. He may be even viewed by his father as not particularly interested in power. Although history is full of examples of sons, who appear to be soft, becoming ruthlessly ambitious when acquiring power.

The second son, Kim Jong-chul, who is about 27, has reportedly accompanied his father on official visits around the country.

The youngest son, Kim Jong-un, who is 25, is thought to be his father’s favourite. He was partly educated in Switzerland, under an assumed name, during his middle teens.

Pundits are pointing to Kim Jong-un as the likely successor. The problem is his youth and inexperience. Kim Jong-il came to power when he was 51. Seniority is of great importance in Korean society. If the youngest son succeeds his father, many would regard him as merely a regent with real power somewhere else.

The people, who yield great power in PDRK, are the senior military officers, comprising the ten member National Defence Commission (NDC). In common with China, the NDC includes a lot of old men, who are in their mid seventies.

Then there is the Korean Workers’ Party. Its chairman, who is also nominally the head of state, is 80 years old. There are younger comrades, but the Dear Leader purges them if he believes they are accumulating too much power. In a period of uncertainty some of them could re-emerge as contenders.

A small team already functions to take key government decisions. This could evolve into a collective leadership. The weakness of this scenario is that in the DPRK power has always been concentrated in the hands of one man. A collective leadership would last until a new strong leader emerges. This would follow the pattern of the Soviet Union when all Stalin’s successors began as members of a collective and then emerged as leaders.
The DPRK is now in the throes of an economic crisis and does not even have enough food supplies to feed its population. The Chinese have stationed more troops along their long frontier with the DPRK. They send back desperate refugees fleeing the country.

The sudden death of Kim Jong-il would unleash a succession struggle. The military would play a key role in deciding who would come to power. The Dear Leader has decided not to nominate his successor. Presumably, this is because he wants to cling on to power as long as possible. A nominated successor might remove him if he suffered prolonged illness. The interests of the country take second place to his own personal interests.

Kim Jong-il’s unwillingness to anoint a successor may mean the end of the Kim dynasty. In such an eventuality, the DPRK would then have a choice: retain a dictatorship or begin to move in the direction of a market economy. Beijing could advise the new leadership on how to retain a political monopoly while moving to a market economy.

This would be Beijing’s preferred outcome. Japan and the West would also accept this solution. The DPRK would no longer be a loose cannon in the nuclear world.

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