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Beijing Weighs The Options Of Maintaining Stability In China

February 15, 2009

Beijing Weighs The Options Of Maintaining Stability In ChinaMartin McCauley writes: The Communist Party of China (CPC) regards stimulating the economy as the easy part of the task it is facing. The much more difficult task is how to deal with possible social unrest.There are a number of anniversaries approaching and each one could ignite social unrest. There is the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan uprising on March 12; the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre on June 4; and the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic on October 1.

For the past month or so officials from the two most important agencies concerned with domestic security: the CPC Commission on Political and Legal Affairs (CPCCPLA) and its government equivalent, the Central Office for the Comprehensive Administration of Law and Order (COCALCO), have been locked in marathon sessions on how to ensure that protests do not get out of hand.
COCALO, which coordinates the roles of the police, security agencies and judicial bodies, has conceded that Beijing faces unprecedented challenges in providing national security. This is deemed the ‘major’ task of all law enforcement agencies. The COCALO director spoke of the job of his agency becoming ‘more severe and complex’. He added that the economic downturn had made matters much worse. Various groups have become more vocal in articulating their demands, he said. Feelings of dissatisfaction with society have risen. Certain groups (presumably unemployed peasants and ethnic minorities) will use ‘very forceful means to achieve their objectives’, he conceded.

The authorities have identified three main causes of social unrest. The first is unemployment. Some government specialists envisage the number of jobless rising to 11 per cent of the labour force. This would mean over 60 million out of work. Migrant workers and demobilised soldiers pose a potential threat to stability.

The government has instructed state and private enterprises not to lay off too many employees this year. East coast enterprises have promised that they will sack as fewer workers as possible. Beijing estimates that about 20 million rural workers have already lost their jobs. This has led some inland provinces to provide social benefits to migrant labourers who have returned home after becoming unemployed.

The second danger to stability has been linked to terrorism. The People’s Armed Police and courts are being admonished to counter resolutely any forms of extremism. The primary targets are separatists in Tibet and Xinjiang. Beijing thinks that malcontents in these provinces are being egged on by ‘anti-Chinese elements based abroad’.

Since mid-January, police and PAP forces have raided thousands of homes and offices and detained more than 80 suspects in Tibet. Since the collapse of talks with the Dalai Lama the authorities have employed iron fist tactics to nip in the bud protests in the run up to the anniversary of the Tibetan uprising.

The same tactics have been employed in Xinjiang. About 1,300 suspects have been arrested and accused of terrorism and other offences. The head of the provincial administration conceded recently that fighting terrorism, separatism and religious extremism was a ‘complicated and enduring task’.

Movement for democracy is considered by the Chinese authorities as the third biggest danger to political stability in the country. The anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests is bound to lead to increased demands for political freedoms. Despite the arrest of leading members of the democracy camp, more and more Chinese are adding their names to the pro-democracy Charter 08 document. Some of the leaders of the 4 June events are campaigning to be permitted to return to China.

There are rumblings already that the massive military parade on October 1 would be a waste of money and would add weight to the arguments of those who regard China as a ‘threat’ to the region. In their defence the military claim that the parade will cost less than the 1999 parade.

The soft approach taken by the authorities has proven to be not very effective. But the iron fist tactics could spark mass protests. A rag tag army of the unemployed and educated malcontents could shake the foundations of the People’s Republic.

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