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Russia And Turkey: A New Strategic Partnership?

February 19, 2009

Russia And Turkey: A New Strategic Partnership?Martin McCauley writes: Abdullah Gul, President of Turkey, has just completed a four day visit to Russia. He met President Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and other officials. He also travelled to Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, where there were discussions about joint investment projects. Gul was accompanied by his minister of foreign trade, the minister of energy and a large group of Turkish businessmen.

When the trip was announced by Moscow it was billed as an ‘official visit’ but was then upgraded to a ‘state visit’, the highest level of state protocol. Clearly Moscow regarded Gul’s presence to be of strategic importance. Presidents Gul and Medvedev signed a joint declaration which commits both states to deepen relations and cooperation.

Trade turnover amounted to $32 billion in 2008 and this made Russia Turkey’s main foreign trade partner. Imports of gas and oil account for most of the trade. Talks began on the transport of more Russian gas through Turkey to European markets.

Turkey has decided to diversify its sources of energy and is to invest in nuclear power. A Russian-led consortium won the contract to construct Turkey’s first nuclear plant. Unfortunately the electricity generated would have been above world prices. Since the deal requires parliamentary approval, the plant may not go ahead. Shortly before President Gul’s visit, the consortium submitted a revised bid which lowered the cost by 30 per cent. The problem now is to decide if this is legal under the tender rules. If so, the contract may be back on track.

Russia is a valuable market for Turkish construction companies and the country imports many Turkish goods. Millions of Russian tourists visit Turkey every year.

Of major concern to Turkey is the huge imbalance in trade due to the country’s need to import Russian oil and gas. This subject was addressed in 2004 when the then President Putin visited Ankara. Little appears to have been done since to balance trade. However the two sides may now begin to use the Turkish lira and the Russian rouble in foreign trade. The Turks hope this will increase Turkish exports to Russia.

Turkish exporters are exasperated by the delays at border crossings. Turkish lorries are held up by custom officials for an inordinate amount of time. Medvedev’s response that customs controls are the same for all nationalities did not satisfy the Turks. President Gul pointed out that an agreement was signed last September to simplify customs procedures. Unfortunately it has not cut down delays.

There was much discussion about deepening mutual ties and consulting on problems in the Middle East. Medvedev especially praised Turkey for its stance during the Russian-Georgian war of August 2008. Turkey then proposed a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). Medvedev stressed that the war had demonstrated that regional powers could cooperate to resolve problems without the intervention of outside powers. This was a clear reference to the United States.

Turkey went ahead and proposed the CSCP without consulting Washington. In the 22 day Gaza war Turkey sharply criticised Israel and maintained links with Hamas. The latter declared that Turkey was the only state it would trust. International observers wondered what effect this would have on Turkey’s NATO membership and relations with the west. Turkish and Israeli commentators have played down the significance of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s behaviour at the Davos economic summit. He stormed off the stage and appeared to insult the Israeli head of state. Turkey had been acting as mediator between Syria and Israel.

Turkey’s room for manoeuvre vis-à-vis Russia is very limited. Prime Minister Erdogan acknowledged that Ankara’s dependence on Russian oil and gas had tied Turkey’s hands during the South Ossetian conflict.

Some Turkish commentators are now talking about a ‘strategic partnership’ with Russia. This term is normally only used to describe Turkish-American relations. There is no doubt that Turkey and Russia are attempting to forge a closer relationship to offset US power in the region.

If the Obama stimulus package does not revive the US economy there will be many opportunities for Turkey and Russia to expand their influence in the Middle East. The downside is that the Russian economy is in rapid decline. The Russian military budget has already been cut by 15 per cent.

The dream of a ‘strategic partnership’ to oust America from the region may turn out to be just another Russian dream

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