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US-Russia Mini-Summit In London: It Can Still Prove Worthwhile

March 30, 2009

US-Russia Mini-Summit In London: It Can Still Prove Worthwhile Anton Goryunov writes from Moscow: As the G20 summit in London approaches one meeting on its fringes that would have dominated the headlines 20 years ago is not attracting too much attention: the first ever face to face encounter between US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev.The post Cold War world has seen its priorities change. Nuclear arms control comes way behind things like the economic crisis, terrorism and regional instability. The role of Russia has also diminished, quite substantially, in the past couple of decades with a new mighty player emerging in the world – China. As one Russian seasoned observer pointed out to me recently, it is the meeting between Mr Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao that everyone will be watching with particular interest. ‘US and China,’ he said, ‘will be shaping the world in the next several decades, with Russia losing its influence more and more. Besides, no one really believes that Medvedev has any real political muscle. Vladimir Putin still calls all the shots in Moscow.’

President Medvedev has tried to dispel suggestions that he is just the frontman for Putin. On the eve of his trip to London he gave an interview to the BBC, trying to come across as a confident politician, who is his own man, even joking that he and Putin were not part of a ‘good cop-bad cop routine’ but were actually equal and both ‘good cops’. But he still failed to project the image of a leader who speaks his mind, sticking to his habit of uttering generalities and avoiding straight answers, like it happened when he was asked whether he would be ready to pardon the jailed oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky who is standing a second trial for embezzlement and money laundering.

Still, even despite the lack of urgency and a sense of confusion who runs things in Moscow Russia and the US have to be seen as determined to achieve progress in agreeing a new strategic arms reduction treaty to replace START-1 that expires in the end of this year. If Russia and the US fail to sign a new treaty it would undermine the whole system of nuclear proliferation with other nations who are determined to develop their own nuclear arsenals considering their attempts to be justified. If the two nuclear superpowers, they would argue, could not reduce their vast nuclear arsenals why should we be barred from having a nuclear capability that would pose minimal threat to the world, compared to the dangers that the American and Russian nuclear stockpiles present.

Co-operation between Moscow and Washington is not limited to arms control. The war in Afghanistan and the instability in Pakistan present a challenge to both countries. Russia does not want the re-emergence of the Taliban as it would pose danger to its southern borders. America is keen to prevent Afghanistan turning once again into a training camp for al Qaeda terrorists who could target the territory of the US. Middle East, Iran and North Korea are other issues where Russia and the US can work closely, not to mention coordinated efforts to solve the current economic woes. Russia has been helping the US by acquiring its Treasury securities, having spent over $30 billion in the last three months of 2008 alone. It might not be on a par with China in this respect but at the moment Russia holds $128 billion of its foreign reserves in US Treasury securities.

No one expects any serious substance to come out of the mini-summit in London. Especially as the mistrust towards the other side exists as much in Moscow as in Washington. The Bush Administration with its tough anti-Russina rhetoric has created serious problems in relations between the two countries and shares the responsibility for the crisis last year in Georgia to the same degree as Russia does, if not more. Washington’s readiness in the past several years to interfere in Moscow’s backyard and use the anti-Russian sentiments in certain former Soviet republics to its advantage has increased the tension in relations even further.

But President Obama has already demonstrated his willingness to compromise and made positive noises about a possible freeze on plans to deploy the anti-ballistic shield in Europe and a possible slowdown of NATO’s expansion to the east. Moscow responded with cautious optimism and that could at least provide a good basis for further understanding. ‘It is all about building bridges,’ one Russian official said. ‘We are not talking about any fundamental shifts in US-Russian relations. It is just too early for that.’

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