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North Korea Launches A Ballistic Missile. The World Is In Panic

April 7, 2009

North Korea Launches A Ballistic Missile. The World Is In Panic As North Korea launches its ballistic missile, claiming success in delivering a communications satellite into orbit – a fact disputed by the U.S. – the big question on everybody’s minds is this: could a mad dictator like Kim Jong-il, if he got his hands on a nuclear bomb and means of its delivery, actually order his generals to launch a nuclear strike against another country? Other considerations pale into insignificance when you talk about rogue states getting their hands on weapons of mass destruction.

So could he or could he not? And the answer would be: no, he could not do that. Every dictator has limits to his powers. He can threaten the word for as long as he likes, painting a possible Armageddon scenario as he unleashes the might of his armed forces on other nations. But when it comes to self-destruction, his powers become very limited.

The general belief that a nuclear button is something that a fanatical leader pushes and the whole world disappears in a cloud of smoke is a big misconception. It simply does not work like that. There are actually quite a few people in the chain of command who have to agree to start a nuclear conflict with the knowledge that they might all perish in it. The consensus in this case is not an easily reachable one. Somewhere along the chain a malfunction is bound to occur. Someone in that line could be expected to question the wisdom of the Dear Leader.

The whole point of nuclear weapons is that they act as a powerful restraint for both sides in a potential conflict. The doctrine of mutual destruction that was fashionable in the 1970s and 1980s, in both the U.S. and the then Soviet Union, stated quite categorically that in case of an all out nuclear conflict both countries will perish. This was enough for the mad generals on both sides – yes, I insist that there are always mad general present in any army – to refrain from suggesting to nuke the enemy. All the talk of possible use of nuclear weapons was only posturing. No one anticipated that it would happen. Especially after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1985 when the whole world suddenly realised that even a limited use of nuclear weapons could backfire on the very country that used them.

As deterrence nuclear weapons have been quite successful in the past. No one really thought that they could be used in an all out war simply because there would be no winners. Everyone would be a loser.

Which brings us neatly to the current situation in North Korea. Kim Jong-il might be under an illusion that his generals would be ready to die for him, with no questions asked, but he would find that the moment he decides to launch a nuclear strike against anyone he would find himself unable to do so. In dictatorships the leader enjoys the support of his inner circle as long as he can provide its members with two important things: wealth and personal safety. Once one of these important components goes, the leader usually finds himself in a spot of serious trouble. He faces two outcomes: either being ousted from power or killed. And dictators, despite what people think of them, have a serious liking for staying alive and holding on to power for as long as possible.

So my point here is this: by launching a ballistic missile Kim Jong-Il is trying to push the price of his willingness to dump his nuclear programme. Russia and China understand that, having been dictatorships for as long as anyone can remember. It would be a good idea for the U.S. and Japan and the West generally to understand that as well.

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