The Stand-Off Between North Korea And The World Intensifies. The Options Are Very Limited

April 27, 2009

Thomas Mathew writes: As the stand-off between North Korea and the rest of the world resumes we, at StirringTroubleInternationally, pose a question: what is it that the West and the United States in particular can actually do to stop the regime in Pyongyang from re-starting its nuclear programme and beefing up its nuclear arsenal? At the moment, according to intelligence reports, North Korea has around six or seven nuclear devices. It also seems to be very close to have the capacity to mount them on missiles to hit targets thousands of miles away. Like Alaska, for example, or even the northern part of Australia.

Whichever way you look at it the options to take on North Korea are very limited, one reason for it being that in case of any hostile action against the country Pyongyang could detonate the 13,000 artillery shells and chemical and biological warheads that it keeps buried along the border with South Korea inflicting terrible damage on its neighbour. So the Iraqi style invasion is out of the question already. Not to mention that the world is not exactly united in its determination to stop Pyongyang from developing its nuclear capability. It took the UN Security Council eight long days to come up with a statement in response to the launch of a long-range missile on April 5, pointing out that it violated a UN ban. The Council could not even manage to approve a formal resolution because Russia and China simply would not hear of it. Unity on this crucial issue was somewhat missing although the statement did call for blacklisting North Korean companies that trade with the outside world and have their assets abroad frozen.

Come to think of it, I have never heard of a single North Korean company having any substantial presence abroad, apart from China. And what assets could there be outside North Korea that could be frozen? I expect most of them are kept in China, hidden on offshore accounts under assumed names. It would probably take years to trace them.

In any case talk of sanctions and black lists of companies would not send shivers down the spines of the Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il and his chums. Would they care if more of their people suffer hardships and hunger? They may even think that it would be good for them and strengthen their revolutionary spirit.

Meanwhile everything that has been achieved in the past couple of years in talks with North Korea has been reversed. It is now planning to re-activate its nuclear reactor at Yongboyon nuclear power plant where the plutonium was produced to make nuclear warheads. It has also expelled the inspectors of the UN’s watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and stated that it has no interest in continuing the six-party peace talks that involve the US, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea.

How much of it is propaganda and how much is real intention is difficult to understand. China is the key player here in trying to convince North Korea to back down at some point. Beijing is probably terrified at the thought of his neighbour becoming unstable and a flood of refugee streaming across its borders.

President Barack Obama seems to be sticking to the old policy of the previous Administration and can only call on North Korea to exercise restraint. Washington’s calls to restart the six party talks that Pyongyang has ditched last December seem to be falling on death ears. North Korea is pushing the Obama Administration to hold bilateral talks that the US is not very keen on. As one Russian expert on North Korea told us, ‘there will be no one to put the blame on for the possible failure in dealing with Kim Jong-Il and President Obama does not need that. Besides, without China’s help the Americans do not stand a chance.’

It appears that the only way to deal with North Korea at the moment is to tread softly and hope for internal changes to take place in Pyongyang. China will play a key role in that while Washington can only stick to the tough rhetoric that does not really worry the regime in North korea all that much.

– End –

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