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Could Water Become A Source Of Conflict In Central Asia? It Looks Like It

May 2, 2009

Could Water Become A Source Of Conflict In Central Asia? It Looks Like ItMartin McCauley writes: Conflict is brewing in Central Asia. Despite being Soviet republics until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 there is no meeting of minds among the nations in the region. They are all predominantly Sunni Muslim and Turkic (except Tajikistan). Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are oil and gas rich and Turkmenistan has gas in abundance. That leaves Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan that have almost no hydrocarbons. But they do have something which the other states covet: water.Central Asia is about half the size of the United States but roughly 60 per cent of the territory is a desert. About 80 per cent of Turkmenistan is a desert as well, just like much of southern Kazakhstan. There is one fertile region: the Fergana Valley. Moscow decided that the best way of keeping the republics in line was to divide it among three of them: Uzbekistan (the largest portion), Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The region is dominated by two great rivers: the Amu Darya which originates in Afghanistan and the Syr Darya which rises in western China. The rivers flow to the Aral Sea which is in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. The rivers provide the precious water which permits the irrigation of the land through which it flows, especially the rich soil of the Fergana Valley.

The major problem is that as oil and gas rich Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan develop they consume more water. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan suffer from a shortage of electricity. Their preferred solution is to build hydropower power stations which, inevitably, restrict the flow of water downstream.

Hence the national interests of the upstream and downstream countries diverge considerably. Uzbekistan, with a population of 28 million or about half of those who inhabit Central Asia, has always seen itself as the dominant force in the region. Gas, exported to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan costs $240 per thousand cubic metres but Kazakhstan only pays $84 per thousand cubic metres. That rankles in Bishkek and Dushanbe not least because Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are poor countries.

On April 28 the five Central Asian Presidents met in Almaty, in Kazakhstan, to discuss water issues and the fact that little water is getting to the Aral Sea. The leaders forcefully articulated their national interests (in Russian) but reached no agreement.

The sticking point was that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan regard water as a commodity which can be bought and sold. The Kyrgyz leader proposed that upstream countries should manage water resources more efficiently. He cited international regulations on trans-border water resource management. It was pointed out that irrigation in Uzbekistan is so inefficient that up to 70 per cent of water is wasted. President Karimov of Uzbekistan ignored these comments, rejecting totally the concept that water is a commodity. He also vigorously opposed the completion of two dams in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan which had been begun during the Soviet period but abandoned in 1991. He wants an international investigation into their construction which he regards as raping nature.

President Bakiev of Kyrgyzstan had a weak hand to play. Over the years 2005-08 about 40 per cent of the electricity generated by hydropower was lost. One presumes that someone was illicitly exporting electricity for personal profit. Now the losses are down to 30 per cent. These losses mean that Bishkek has had to ration electricity supplies. There were even cuts in water supplies.

No agreement was reached at the water summit. If Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan continue work on completing the dams tensions will rise. International experts are encouraging upstream and downstream states to work together to find a solution acceptable to all. However, President Karimov of Uzbekistan is not a leader who makes concessions. His country is oil and gas rich and he intends to use this to bully the upstream countries into submission. Conflict appears inevitable.

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