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Is Xinjiang Violence A Threat To The Unity Of China?

July 25, 2009

Martin McCauley writes: The rioting in Xinjiang Autonomous Region on July 5 was the worst in the history of the People’s Republic of China and cost the lives of 197 Han Chinese and Uyghurs. It was the greatest loss of life since the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976. The region formed the East Turkestan Republic before the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949 and is now home to over 19 million citizens. The Muslim Uyghurs make up about 45 per cent and Han Chinese 40 per cent of the population.The region is strategically of key importance. It borders on Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and India. It also administers Chinese occupied Kashmir. It is oil and gas rich and oil and gas pipelines from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have been or are being built. Refineries will be built to process incoming oil and pipelines will take oil and gas to the central and coastal provinces of China.

From the above it is quite clear that the region is set to play an increasingly significant role in the economic development of the Middle Kingdom. It is crucially important that Beijing find a solution to the ethnic tensions which are now so evident in Xinjiang.
So what is Beijing doing? Hu Jintao peremptorily left the G8 meeting in L’Aquila, Italy, on July 9 to take personal control of the situation. This was a serious loss of face for the President of China in the eyes of the world’s public. Hu is the chair of the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The unrest was first and foremost treated as a security problem. The first task was to fly in an extra 50,000 People’s Armed Police (PAP) and other security officers. This disrupted civilian flights in eastern China for about a week as planes were chartered to ferry reinforcements to Urumqi.

The Chinese leadership is determined to crush the three ‘evils’: separatism, terrorism and extremism. These forces allegedly enjoy the support of ‘anti-Chinese forces abroad’. The World Uyghur Congress, based in the United States, is a special target. The Politburo Standing Committee member responsible for law and order spoke of a ‘severe political struggle to uphold national unity and consolidate Party rule’. The magnitude of the task is quite clear from his remarks. Handled ineptly, Xinjiang could explode into social unrest.

Beijing claims that unarmed quasi-terrorist groups from southern and western Xinjiang ‘infiltrated’ Urumqi before July 5. They provoked the violence. Large numbers of young Uyghurs have been arrested. Han Chinese civil rights lawyers have been warned not to take up their cases. A respected Han Chinese economics professor – well known for promoting a dialogue between Han Chinese and Uyghurs – was arrested on July 6. So far, 158 Han Chinese academics have signed a letter to the CPC requesting his release.

More economic investment and aid are promised. Urumqi is developing fast. Last year its Gross Domestic Product increased by 15 per cent and per capita disposable income is over $1800 a year. Rural areas are quite another story. Per capita disposable incomes are less than a third of those in the towns. Needless to say vast sums of money have been promised to remedy this yawning gulf. Rural Uyghurs complain that they have to migrate to China’s coastal cities to find work. Had there been no Uyghur migrant workers in Guandong province there would not have been riots. Beijing may have learnt this painful lesson.

Another sore point is the Uyghur argument that they have benefited little from the great hydrocarbon wealth in their province. Han Chinese reap the benefits. Then there is the question of who runs Xinjiang. Traditionally a Han Chinese is first Party secretary and the Prime Minister is a Uyghur. In China the top man is always the Party secretary.

Uyghurs are ambivalent about investment. The Prime Minister trumpeted the 3 billion yuan ($440 million) development of the old city in Kashgar. Locals see it as vandalism and the destruction of their national heritage. Hence modernisation can cause resentment. The Prime Minister put his foot in it by claiming that teaching Mandarin to Uyghur primary school children would ‘help to fight terrorism’. It may do the opposite as locals complain that their language is being downgraded.
Xinjiang’s PAP and local police are not exactly competent. They claim to have intercepted messages from the Uyghur World Congress in June and July encouraging locals to do ‘something big’ on July 5. If this is true they were remarkably incompetent because onlookers relate that the authorities were caught totally off guard by the racial conflicts of July 5. True, the police did try to dissuade students from beginning the demonstration which ended up in a violent confrontation between Han Chinese and Uyghurs.

The riots could not have come at the worst time for Beijing. The difficult economic situation in China compounds the problems facing the governing elite. It will probably adopt a heavy handed policy of repression in Xinjiang because if it makes concessions to the locals it will be seen to be weak. It will also pour in money to the region but locals see this as strengthening Han Chinese control. A nightmare scenario would be terrorist attacks against oil and gas installations and pipelines.
Xinjiang is about the size of Iran and is running out of water in some rural areas. Locals have had to be resettled in other parts of the region. If Beijing is seen to be having problems in Xinjiang, trouble might flare up again in Tibet. China’s provinces are now run by local elites and are keen to loosen Beijing’s grip. The Communist Party of China is now facing an unprecedented challenge to its power. Are we at a turning point in modern China’s history?

– End –

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One Response to “Is Xinjiang Violence A Threat To The Unity Of China?”

  1. JJ on July 26th, 2009 9:33 am

    Every time the Chinese put their dirty paws somewhere, they screw up either someone’s culture or someone’s toys. Somebody should put some birth control chemicals into their water and bring this pest under control.

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