Is A Deal With The Taliban In Afghanistan On The Cards?

October 12, 2009

Martin McCauley writes: U.S. President Barack Obama, we are told, is burning the midnight oil with his closest military advisors, trying to work out a new American strategy in Afghanistan.

He has got three major options on the table: either he gives in to the request of the U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McCrystal, and boosts the American contingent with another 40,000 troops, or he sticks to what he has now and hopes that commando operations and unpiloted drones will continue to inflict serious damage on the insurgents. Or, in line with his new Nobel Peace Prize, Mr Obama could decide to start scaling down American military presence and rely totally on covert operations.

The White House has already rejected any idea of cutting troop numbers in Afghanistan, but that was before the Nobel Committee made its strange announcement, so who knows now.

In any case, it has been revealed that President Obama is seriously considering opening channels of communication with the Taliban and even including them in some possible future unity government. And that means that the talks might start quite soon with moderate factions of the Taliban.

Last year President Hamid Karzai had asked Saudi Arabia and other states to help bring the war against the Taliban in Afghanistan to an end. He wanted to launch negotiations with Mullah Muhammad Omar in order to resolve the conflict that Kabul is now admitting cannot be won militarily.

The Mullah’s position is quite clear: Western coalition forces must leave Afghanistan as soon as possible. Just like the Soviet Army had left in 1989. The Soviets were not defeated on the battlefield, but lost the diplomatic war. The Mullah is eying the same sequence of events this time round.

President Karzai chose Saudi Arabia to help him strike a deal with the Taliban because it is one of only three states which had maintained diplomatic relations with the Taliban before the attacks on 9/11. The Afghan President has even quietly hinted at the possibility of the Taliban getting portfolios in his government if it gives up military action. However, the Mullah, who heads the self styled Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, is an enigmatic figure. He negotiated the alliance with al-Qaeda and provides safe havens for al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan. The Mullah is an ethnic Pashtun, the dominant ethnic group in Afghanistan.

U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates and the previous U.S commander in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, have floated suggestions that peace can be made with the Taliban. They have, however, made it clear that the war against al-Qaeda would continue.

Washington now recognises that there are fundamental differences between the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Whereas al-Qaeda is a violent international organisation, bent on sowing destruction worldwide, the Taliban is focused on a limited objective: taking control over Afghanistan. The Taliban is composed of many factions and its loyalties rest with tribal and family groups. This means that one can cultivate a ‘moderate’ faction with some hope of success.

Al-Qaeda, on the other hand, is tightly organised and disciplined. So would it be possible to break the links between the Taliban and al-Qaeda? The prize for the Taliban is to play a leading role in the next Afghan government. The negotiations will include a date for the withdrawal of the 100,000 foreign troops from the country.
Will the West engage the Taliban in talks to avoid the possibility of fighting the conflict in Afghanistan forever? Just like the Soviets did?

– End –

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