Is Iran Supporting The Taliban In Afghanistan?

November 8, 2009

Martin McCauley writes: The growing military sophistication of the Taliban in Afghanistan has transformed them into a formidable adversary of the US-led coalition. It is a classic case of asymmetrical warfare: a huge, heavily armed force is confronted by a much smaller, mobile force which avoids direct military confrontation.When the Taliban were defeated in 2001, few predicted that they would re-group and come back with a vengeance. How has this transformation come about? One of the sources of arms and expertise is Iran. On the surface, Tehran enjoys good relations with Kabul but an increasing number of Iranian weapons have been finding their way to the insurgents. Is Iran playing a double game: on the one hand helping to stabilise Afghanistan but on the other seeking its destruction?

British forces allegedly intercepted at least two shipments of Iranian-made arms in Helmand province in June 2007. Russian surface-to-air missiles, also seized by British forces, are believed to have originated in Iran. A ten tonne cache of arms and munitions of Iranian, Chinese and Russian manufacture was uncovered in Herat province, which borders on Iran, in September 2007.

The appearance of advanced armour piercing explosives by the insurgents in Afghanistan had led some observers to point the finger at Tehran. Explosively-Formed Penetrators (EFPs) were also present in Iraq and their ability to penetrate tanks and armoured vehicles led to many US and other forces’ casualties. In addition to providing weapons and other support to the insurgents in Afghanistan Iran is also accused of running training and logistical camps, particularly in the east bordering on Herat province. Militants cross the border near Herat into Iran, receive training and then go back to fight NATO forces.

The Kabul government is careful not to accuse Tehran of actively aiding the insurgents. There is little evidence of official Iranian involvement. Most of the weapons and explosives may be provided by smugglers or Iranian border guards. Information about EPFs and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) is now readily available on the Internet and various other sources.

Iran’s support of the Afghan government is vital if stability is to be achieved. It is, however, possible, that a faction or factions within the elite Quds force are acting in parallel with the Tehran authorities.
Iran is now the fourth largest source of foreign direct investment in Afghanistan. Projects include those in infrastructure, energy, agriculture, health care and communications. Tehran also provides much humanitarian aid to develop Afghan educational and cultural institutions. Iran maintains close relations with local authority leaders and warlords in Herat province.

On balance Iran would lose out if the Taliban were to come back to power in Afghanistan. Previous Taliban rule led to about 1.5 million Afghan Shias seeking refuge in Iran. Tehran contributed vital intelligence to help US forces defeat the Taliban in 2001.

Much has been written about the impact of the narcotics trade on Western societies. It is also worth pointing out that Iran has one of the highest rates of drug addiction of any country. The UN estimated, in October 2009, that Iran consumes 15 per cent of the world’s opium. Conflict between the drug traffickers and the Iranian authorities is becoming more and more violent. Many of the groups inside Iran are linked to gangs in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

There is no doubt that sophisticated Iranian weapons and explosives are finding their way into Afghanistan. At present, the Taliban is winning the war with the US-led coalition. A Taliban dominated Afghanistan would be unwelcome to Tehran. The Sunni Taliban might attempt to help the Iranian Sunni minority, especially in the south east of the country, to gain greater autonomy from Tehran.

Will Iran eventually decide that it could not tolerate a Taliban victory? If so, it might change sides and help coalition forces against the insurgents.

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