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Uzbek Militants In Pakistan Are Being Forced Out

November 10, 2009

Uzbek Militants Being Forced Out Of Pakistan Martin McCauley writes: The situation in Waziristan, where the Pakistan army is conducting an offensive against Islamic militants, remains tense.

After meeting strong resistance Pakistani armed forces have captured the towns of Sararogha and Kaniguram, in southern Waziristan. The latter is the main base of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a militant group which has been operating in the region since being forced out of its bases in Afghanistan in 2001.The Pakistani military says that over 360 militants were killed since the beginning of Operation Rah-e-Nijat.

The ground offensive involves around 30,000 troops but the slow pace of the operation allowed many militants to withdraw and relocate. The continuing suicide bomb attacks against leading urban centres by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have underlined the need to deal with the terrorist threat from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of north west Pakistan. Eliminating the Uzbek militants is one of the three main objectives of the operation, according to the Chief of the Army Staff.

Uzbek militants and TTP fighters fought from fortified positions and bunkers at Kaniguram and Pakistani forces had to take the town street by street. They had to clear Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) as they advanced. The Pakistanis deployed jet fighters, helicopter gunships and artillery to pound enemy positions. The number of Uzbek fighters who had made the town their base was estimated at between 1,000 and 1,500. The town is mainly populated by the Pashtun Barki tribe.

Some reports stated that the Uzbeks were ‘on the run’ but a more cautious analysis would point to a strategic withdrawal. Previously militants had put up stout resistance in the village Sherwangi, a known base of foreign fighters. They had held off the Pakistani army long enough to engage in a phased withdrawal. Their aim was to continue resistance from another location.

The IMU leader, Tahir Yuldash, was reported killed in a missile strike in August. However, the IMU deny that he is dead and it is uncertain what changes have been made to IMU tactics since then. Options for the IMU in their region are limited as they have serious differences with TPP militants outside the Mahsud tribe of southern Waziristan. The Uzbek fighters may attempt to move to northern Waziristan. But this would bring them into conflict with TPP groups there. These groups have long objected to the Uzbek presence in Waziristan. IMU survivors may attempt to cross into eastern Afghanistan using established Taliban routes. Many of the fighters are accompanied by their families. The Pakistani army estimates that the operation in southern Waziristan may last another two months.

President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan will follow the fortunes of the IMU closely. If the militants in Pakistan are wiped out, it will ease the pressure on the Central Asian republic. However, if they manage to survive and move closer to the border with Central Asia, it will pose an even greater threat to the regime in Tashkent.

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