Is Libya Descending Into Civil War? Yep, It’s Doing Just That

January 28, 2012

Martin McCauley writes from Tripoli: Thing are not looking good in Libya, in case you’ve missed it. A bit of a civil war is brewing up here.

So that you know, the late dictator Muammar Gaddafi based his power on the policy of divide and rule. He favoured his own tribe and its allies and discriminated against the rest. The uprising that eventually overthrew him was just the first act in the Libyan drama. The next act is now being played out. Those who suffered under Gaddafi and during the uprising are now seeking revenge. The rebels’ primary loyalty was to themselves. There was no likelihood that afterwards they would lay down their arms and meekly accept a new civilian government backed by the West.

The National Transitional Council does not really possess a proper army that could force all the militias to give up their weapons. Why should any tribe leave itself defenceless? The animosity and hatred spawned by the Gaddafi era runs too deep. What’s more, Qatar has been helping the militias in an attempt to gain influence. It has bypassed the transitional government regarding it as a temporary set up. Real power will lie with those who gain control of a national assembly – whenever it is elected. The winners will seek to form a national army. Its core would be their own militias. Arabs are aware of the old adage: a government is as strong as the military that backs it.

Hence it is not surprising that the UN Security Council laments recent violence in Tripoli, Bani Walid and Benghazi. Over 8,000 pro-Gaddafi supporters are being held and tortured. Sometimes the violence spreads into the streets and dead militia men are a common sight.

The Libyan people have great expectations. However, the country needs to build strong institutions, establish the rule of law and promote reconciliation among those who are still fighting. A tall order. Libya is a Muslim country. The Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists want Sharia or Islamic law. The secular elites do not. Who should have the right to vote in upcoming elections? Should overseas Libyans who fled the country be allowed back to vote? Those who favour Sharia are opposed. They judge that those who have lived abroad will favour a secular state.

The magnitude of the task facing the government is illustrated by events in Tawergha. It served as a base for pro-Gaddafi forces in their three month long siege of Misrata, the country’s third largest city. The 30,000 residents of Tawergha have been driven out and forced to flee into the desert. The militia in charge says they will not be allowed back.

Then take the case of the Amazigh or Berbers. They consider themselves the original Libyans and have their own language and customs. They are found throughout western Libya. They would like to be autonomous and permitted to develop their own culture. Will the overwhelmingly Arab population of the country countenance this?

Act two of the Libyan drama is now unfolding. It consists of militias and tribes taking revenge for past injustices. That is only one reason for the fighting. The other is to gain control of the country. The oil and gas wealth will fuel endless conflicts. These conflicts will continue until a victor emerges. Given the number of tribes, this will last a long time. The danger for Libya is that it will descend into a fratricidal war which will gradually destroy the country.

What is the solution? Since hydrocarbon wealth is the prize, tribal elders have to come together and agree on how this money is to be distributed. The biggest prize will go to those tribes which can form alliances backed by a strong militia. We may be in for a bout of infighting until the stronger tribes come together. Only then can act three of the Libyan drama begin: building a modern state.

–End–

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Tags: chaos, civil war, Libya