Samuel Marshall writes from Washington: Chimerica,or China and America, is the new dominant arrangement in world politics. If the 19^th was Europe’s century, the 20^th was America’s, the present century belongs to the two great Pacific powers. The American establishment is gradually withdrawing from Europe and the Middle East and focusing on East Asia. The European Union is a declining power and will be mired in economic problems for years to come. America is expected to be energy self-sufficient within a decade. So no need to prop up dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The US is not the only power disengaging from Europe. Russia is moving eastwards and sees its key future relationships involving China, Japan and South Korea.

The US is the main military power on the planet. China is catching up but is still a long way behind. It is building its own aircraft carrier but there are doubts about its ability to engineer thousands of moving parts to ensure a smooth operation. Tales of collapsing bridges, floors of apartment blocks dropping and train accidents reveal the level of corruption which is blighting the economy. So much money is being creamed off contracts that the end product becomes unsafe. China will become the largest economy in the world by 2020 but what does that mean? What percentage of annual output will not be fit for purpose? The new communist leadership in Beijing has a mammoth task to curb corruption. This is now so embedded in the genes of the system that it is impossible to excise it. The only hope is to halt its inexorable rise and then contain it. Scandals involving Party and government officials are now commonplace. They only problem is that they undermine the legitimacy of the Communist Party. Soon some blogger will call it the party of thieves and robbers.

Beijing is cracking down on the internet. Everyone is now to use their own names as user names. Censorship will become stricter. Since there is software which can circumvent the censors, this is like King Canute ordering the tide to recede. What does this new edit reveal about the Communist Party? It is increasingly scared of the people of China. This applies especially to the younger generation.

If China has problems so has America. Capitalism is in crisis and the fabled ‘can do’ society appears to be descending into the ‘can’t do’ society. However China and America are now in a symbiotic relationship: one cannot live without the other. The US is living beyond its means but China lends Washington the money to pay for Chinese goods. Without the US market the Chinese economy would descend into crisis. The ruling establishments in both countries are happy with the present situation. They have both become immensely rich over the last two decades and want to hang on to their wealth.

The Pentagon is always looking for the next war to ensure its budget keeps on growing. Defence spending will be cut but a new enemy has appeared: China. Expect the military to keep talking about the Chinese threat (in reality there is none) so as to boost spending. The new word is pivot. This is now east Asia down to Australia. The navy is building new bases and moving a lot of hardware there.

The Sino-American relationship is like a marriage. Both partners sparring for dominance and accusing the other of not respecting its interests and wishes from time to time. However they cannot get along without one another. They just have to find a solution to every little niggle which appears. That is their fate.

–End–

2 Comments

1. Jack Durish says:

   December 31, 2012 at 1:20 am

   Don’t be misled by U.S. politicians and their electorate. The truth is that most Americans don’t really care about their government. Look at the percentage of us who even bother to vote. I know that our media, the President’s paparazzi, create the “appearance” that he is significant to us, but he really isn’t. Americans of the “can do” variety are self-sufficient and are ignoring him. Washington will soon self-destruct in its frenzy of spending and the people (mostly Chinese) will have a hard time collecting. What, is China going to repossess all our iPads, iPhones, iTablets, whatever. The truth is that China can’t afford to cut off the credit. Their economy would tank just as quickly as ours. No, they will continue to loan us money to buy the products that they make until the fantasy finally evaporates. It’s going to be a mess. I don’t know what the rest of the world will do. I don’t know what the progressives who principally occupy the two coasts of America will do. Nor do I care. The great middle of America will barter and continue to thrive on its own.
2. Kevin says:

   December 31, 2012 at 2:05 am

   I never really liked that Weibo thing, Bandai now there’s a product. Samuel I assume you are talking about networking and social networking, I always assume them sort of things. If China has publicly announced this to there people do you think more people in America will realise what has already happened. Also about this software are you talking about software that hides IP addresses. Lots of people seem to be using that Hide My Ass dot com, but in the end people will realise its best to just avoid SOPA and CISPA most of the people involved in these studies are the same people who are creating it. If its good for business and works in the west like it has then it will work in the East. We are now seeing this good for the dollar good for the Yaun. Thanks giving comes early, Chinese year comes late. Happy New Year Stirring Trouble Internationally.