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In The Game Of Brinkmanship Iran Holds An Ace: The Strait of Hormuz

Martin McCauley writes: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, addressing recently the UN General Assembly, roared his defiance of America and the West. His main message was that the Iranian people would resist any attempts to bully them into submission. He also made clear that Iran has the right to pursue its civillian nuclear ambitions, irrespective of what the international community thinks about it. Iran holds an ace which was not mentioned in Ahmadinejad’s speech. Tehran has already made it clear that it will block the Strait of Hormuz if any attempt is made to attack it. This is the strategic waterway between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has warned that in the event of an attack on Iran it has the capability to close... 

Why Is Nigeria Descending Into Civil Strife

Martin McCauley writes: Nigeria is one of the richest countries of Africa. Its oil revenues may have reached $70 billion in 2008. Yet it is racked by civil strife and is taking on many of the characteristics of a failed state. Muslin militants in the north have launched attacks on police and government buildings and Niger Delta rebels have been destroying oil installations in the former capital of Lagos. Why is this happening? What is the solution to Nigeria’s problems? Boko Haram (literally books are prohibited) is a fundamentalist Islamic group whose aim is to introduce Sharia or Islamic law in Muslim areas in northern Nigeria. Dubbed the Nigerian Taleban its leader, until yesterdays, July 30, was Mohamed Yusuf, who had been influenced by the Wahhabi strain of Islam. He was captured... 

Is China’s Long Term Goal To Dominate Oil Markets?

Martin McCauley writes: China has many weaknesses in its economy. One of them is insufficient supplies of oil and gas. The more it imports, the greater the risk to supplies being interrupted by conflict or political pressure. China is now the world’s second largest consumer and importer of oil. As its economy expands it becomes more and more dependent on overseas supplies. In order to improve the reliability of supplies the Middle Kingdom has embarked on an ambitious plan to influence production in major oil producing countries.This year China’s National Oil Companies (NOCs) have struck deals with four major oil producing states. In February, a $25 billion soft loan was extended to Russia’s Rosneft and Transneft in return for a long term commitment to export oil to China.... 

Russia’s Pipeline Deal With China Reveals Moscow’s Desperation

Martin McCauley writes: Russia and China have finally agreed a deal which provides Rosneft, the Russian giant state-owned oil company, and Transneft, the pipeline monopoly, with loans that will permit the expansion of oil production and its deliveries to China.Rosneft will receive $15 billion for the development of its business in Siberia and Transneft another $10 billion to build the long delayed East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline to China. China, in return, will receive over 300,000 barrels of oil (there are 7 barrels in a tonne) a day for the next 20 years. Russia desperately needs the capital to expand the export of oil to China, South Korea and Japan and, possibly, the United States. Is this pipeline the harbinger of a lucrative export business? No, it is not. The main reason is... 

Is The Chávez Revolution In Venezuela Running Out Of Money?

Martin McCauley writes: President Hugo Chávez, the self-proclaimed standard bearer of Marxism in Latin America, has now been in power for ten years. His supporters claim that he has turned Venezuela into a ‘socialist paradise’, pointing to the fact that extreme poverty has dropped from the level of 42 per cent of the population in 1998 to 9.5 per cent now. ‘Venezuela invests 4.2 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in health care’, intoned one minister. Other officials boast that education programmes in the country are among the most ambitious in all of Latin America. But opponents of Chávez claim that achieving equality remains a distant dream and that many opportunities to improve the economy have been lost. President Chávez was at his ebullient best during the... 

China Is Beginning To Dominate Military And Energy Relations With Russia

Martin McCauley writes: Russia is failing to meet China’s demands for energy and military hardware. Beijing is desperate to ensure long term supplies of oil and gas to feed its industries in the next ten years. Despite this, China and Russia cannot agree any deals. The main reason is price. China will simply not pay European prices for hydrocarbons. At present oil is transported by rail to China. Pipelines have to be built but Moscow does not have the money to build them. It needs loans from Beijing. The Chinese have even insisted that the pipes be manufactured in China and that Chinese engineers supervise the installation. The Russians would repay the loans by delivering oil. China has a lot of experience of such deals. Investments in African countries, for example, are repaid in this... 

China And Kazakhstan Edge Closer Together. To The Apparent Disapproval Of Russia

By Martin McCauley: For China, Kazakhstan is the most important of the Central Asian states. This is made clear by Beijing referring to their partnership as ‘strategic’. So why is it exactly that Astana is the most important capital for Beijing? Kazakhstan shares a long border with the Xinjiang autonomous region, home to Uyghurs and other Muslim nationalities. It is also potentially fabulously rich in minerals, oil and gas, not to mention being the bread basket of Central Asia. Energy security is very important to China, and oil and gas from Kazakhstan and from two other countries in the region – Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – is less subject to disruption than imports from the Middle East. Kazakhstan is courted by Russia, China and the US because of its strategic position... 

Is China Paying Too High A Price for Oil In Sudan?

(By Martin McCauley.) The news that five Chinese oil workers have been killed in Sudan’s South Kordofan province came as a shock. For all in the know. However, three Sudanese oil workers were also murdered and two Yemeni workers abducted nearby. The Khartoum government blames the killings of Chinese citizens on the Baqqara Arabs. They died despite the fact that China has troops in Sudan to protect its nationals working there. Originally, nine Chinese oil workers, belonging to the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation, but under contract to the Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company had been taken hostage. Three were killed in a shootout between the rebels and the Sudanese army. The Chinese called it a ‘botched rescue attempt’ but Khartoum maintained that the rebels had become... 

China And Syria Cosy Up To One Another

(By Martin McCauley.) China’s insatiable thirst for oil – it is the world’s fastest growing consumer of oil – obliges Beijing to establish friendly relations with states in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere. The world financial meltdown has brought down the price of oil and as other economies slow down China will find that there is more oil available. But as China has also been affected by the world slowdown – growth this year may dip below 8 per cent – it may also buy oil to stockpile. However, China is interested in more than energy, security and market access in the Middle East. During the Cold War, which ended in 1991, China was marginalised by two major players: the Soviet Union and the United States. It attacked Soviet policy for not doing enough... 

Has Russia Walked Into A Chinese Trap?

(By Martin McCauley.) Agatha Christie’s play, the Mousetrap, is the longest running production in theatrical history. There is another trap, a Chinese Trap, which may prove to be as long lasting. It has been cunningly set for Russia to walk into. Wen Jiabao, the Chinese Prime Minister, and Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, have just signed various deals in Moscow. One of them involves building a spur to connect the East Siberia Pacific Oil Pipeline (ESPO) to China. Rosneft has a 15 year deal with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to supply 15 million tonnes (there are 7 barrels in a tonne) annually. The oil should begin flowing in 2010. Transneft, the state monopoly pipeline company, expects to negotiate a $10 billion loan from a Chinese bank to build the pipeline. On... 

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